Can Sanders Beat Trump in 2020?
I'm going to make this my reading list for articles that address the question in the title. If you have articles to suggest, please let me know in the comment section and I'll add them to a reference section at the end of the blog post.
Now, for starters, here are my notes on a recent Democracy Now debate:
Can Bernie Sanders Defeat Trump?
Jacobin’s Bhaskar Sunkara & The Atlantic’s David Frum Debate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lm02XJAAM9M
-------------------------------
Introduction
Democracy Now remarks on the Democratic National Committee (DNC)
Introducing the Debaters (see David Frum and Bhaska Sunkara in Reference section at bottom).
Name acronyms:
=====================================
The Debate
----------------
BS
Sanders is not an unknown. He has a long track record.
----------------
DF
Democrats are not crazy. Trump is dangerous. This is a moment of danger.
I'm a conservative, but I voted for Hilary Clinton in 2016.
Sanders speaks to the disaffected, but the economy is doing well.
It will be hard to flip the Senate when the economy is doing well.
Other Republicans could cruse to victory today, say if G. Bush was running.
Vermont is not representative of the US.
I won't recommend another Dem candidate. I just want to talk about Sanders.
Democrats don't have strategy for winning the senate.
----------------
BS
Q: if Dems cannot win senate can he push his agenda through?
A: Sanders will be able to do a lot. He will be able to work with others.
He was willing to make compromises with the likes of Joe Biden.
A: 46% of Americans will vote party affiliation. So that's 92%.
The question is how to win the votes of the remaining 8%.
So, to win you need more than 4%.
[FMB Note: to win the general election, one needs to win the electoral college.]
Rural Vermont gun owners like Bernie.
Maybe Sanders won't do well with $100,000+ income people in Florida
----------------
DF
Sanders will fail at mobilizing black voters.
Michigan depends on black turnout.
Sanders can't assure women who delivered house to Dems.
He's not a woman.
Sanders a creature of 60s and 70s
Sanders operation very male dominated.
At dagger's point with Hilary Clinton.
-----------------
AW
Displays quote:
"""
Bernie Sanders' followers are more of a concern to me than anybody else. They have a passion and, in a way, they tap into what Donald Trump tapped into, but they do it on the left... So if I had to pick one person I'm most concerned about, it would be Bernie Sanders.
"""
- Rep. Mark Meados (R-North Carolina)
----------------
BS
I agree with Meados.
I would dispute what DF has to say about black voters.
Black turn out dropped in 2016 to normal levels.
Sanders has support with Latinos and women.
Women hate Trump.
----------------
DF
Two theories on Meados:
1. Meados is fooling with you.
2. Meados is fooling himself.
Trump's win in 2016 was a fluke.
Trump has false story about how he won.
Sanders offends people involved with political process.
Times are good, which favors the incumbent.
-------------------
AG
Mentions various polls that show support for Sanders among various groups.
------------------
BS
People of color have been voting for bad Dems when the alternative is white nationalism.
How to get the other 5% (As stated before, 46% of voters support their party. That means 92% will go with their party. So, only 8% are undecided. How do you win the majority of the 8%?)
Sanders is not uniquely un-electable.
Sanders has been able to define Democratic Socialist as FDR.
Trump called ObamaCare a Socialist Plot
--------------------
BS
Q: Isn't Sanders a structuralist socialist
A: Sanders is more careful than I am on structural changes. The changes he's calling for are more in line with FDR.
--------------------
AG
Q: With the exception of Obama, haven't centrist Dems lost to Republicans in many of the previous elections?
-----------------------
DF
Most Dems don't see the world the way I do.
Sanders joined the socialist workers party. They denounced hostages as spies.
Sanders didn't but it will look bad.
I would vote for Sanders over Trump.
But for millions the choice is whether to show up or not.
---------------------
BS
Sanders was never member of socialist workers party.
Sanders served as an elector for many minor parties in Vermont.
Sanders is not an anti-American.
His opposition to foreign wars is more consistent with mainstream American voters who are mostly opposed to the foreign policy establishment in Washington DC.
-------------------------------------
ScottW (Facebook comment)
I'd worry that Sanders would do pretty much the same as Corbyn did in the UK elections - energize the left base, but fail to gain the trust of enough moderates to win an election.
-------------------------------------
Sunkara, Bhaska
The Socialist Manifesto:
the case for radical politics in an era of extreme inequality
by Bhaskar Sunkara
Sanders is leading the pack in Iowa - and that's good news for Democrats
The Guardian
by Bhaskar Sunkara
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/13/sanders-iowa-leading-democrats-panic
Bhaskar Sunkara is founding editor and publisher of Jacobin
------------------------------
Thompson, Derek
Bernie Sanders Is George McGovern
The similarities between 2020 and 1972 are too astonishing to ignore. But there’s one big difference.
by Derek Thompson
1/21/2020
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/bernie-sanders-george-mcgovern/606883/
Let me begin with a confession. When I started to report out and write this article, I had a simple thesis: Bernie Sanders is not George McGovern.
The catastrophic loser of the 1972 presidential election, McGovern has become a convenient bogeyman for any moderate or conservative arguing that leftism is a fatal disease in a general election. McGovern won just one state, Massachusetts, while the incumbent, Richard Nixon, commanded 96 percent of the Electoral College vote. It was then the largest Republican landslide in U.S. history.
Now, for starters, here are my notes on a recent Democracy Now debate:
Can Bernie Sanders Defeat Trump?
Jacobin’s Bhaskar Sunkara & The Atlantic’s David Frum Debate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lm02XJAAM9M
-------------------------------
Introduction
Democracy Now remarks on the Democratic National Committee (DNC)
- The DNC sides with David Frum's position in this debate. They are more centrist.
- The DNC will change rules allow Michael Bloomberg to enter the next Dem primary candidate debate.
Introducing the Debaters (see David Frum and Bhaska Sunkara in Reference section at bottom).
Name acronyms:
- Amy Goodman (AG)
- Bhaska Sunkara (BS)
- David Frum (DF)
=====================================
The Debate
----------------
BS
Sanders is not an unknown. He has a long track record.
----------------
DF
Democrats are not crazy. Trump is dangerous. This is a moment of danger.
I'm a conservative, but I voted for Hilary Clinton in 2016.
Sanders speaks to the disaffected, but the economy is doing well.
It will be hard to flip the Senate when the economy is doing well.
Other Republicans could cruse to victory today, say if G. Bush was running.
Vermont is not representative of the US.
I won't recommend another Dem candidate. I just want to talk about Sanders.
Democrats don't have strategy for winning the senate.
----------------
BS
Q: if Dems cannot win senate can he push his agenda through?
A: Sanders will be able to do a lot. He will be able to work with others.
He was willing to make compromises with the likes of Joe Biden.
A: 46% of Americans will vote party affiliation. So that's 92%.
The question is how to win the votes of the remaining 8%.
So, to win you need more than 4%.
[FMB Note: to win the general election, one needs to win the electoral college.]
Rural Vermont gun owners like Bernie.
Maybe Sanders won't do well with $100,000+ income people in Florida
----------------
DF
Sanders will fail at mobilizing black voters.
Michigan depends on black turnout.
Sanders can't assure women who delivered house to Dems.
He's not a woman.
Sanders a creature of 60s and 70s
Sanders operation very male dominated.
At dagger's point with Hilary Clinton.
-----------------
AW
Displays quote:
"""
Bernie Sanders' followers are more of a concern to me than anybody else. They have a passion and, in a way, they tap into what Donald Trump tapped into, but they do it on the left... So if I had to pick one person I'm most concerned about, it would be Bernie Sanders.
"""
- Rep. Mark Meados (R-North Carolina)
----------------
BS
I agree with Meados.
I would dispute what DF has to say about black voters.
Black turn out dropped in 2016 to normal levels.
Sanders has support with Latinos and women.
Women hate Trump.
----------------
DF
Two theories on Meados:
1. Meados is fooling with you.
2. Meados is fooling himself.
Trump's win in 2016 was a fluke.
Trump has false story about how he won.
Sanders offends people involved with political process.
Times are good, which favors the incumbent.
-------------------
AG
Mentions various polls that show support for Sanders among various groups.
------------------
BS
People of color have been voting for bad Dems when the alternative is white nationalism.
How to get the other 5% (As stated before, 46% of voters support their party. That means 92% will go with their party. So, only 8% are undecided. How do you win the majority of the 8%?)
Sanders is not uniquely un-electable.
Sanders has been able to define Democratic Socialist as FDR.
Trump called ObamaCare a Socialist Plot
--------------------
BS
Q: Isn't Sanders a structuralist socialist
A: Sanders is more careful than I am on structural changes. The changes he's calling for are more in line with FDR.
--------------------
AG
Q: With the exception of Obama, haven't centrist Dems lost to Republicans in many of the previous elections?
-----------------------
DF
Most Dems don't see the world the way I do.
Sanders joined the socialist workers party. They denounced hostages as spies.
Sanders didn't but it will look bad.
I would vote for Sanders over Trump.
But for millions the choice is whether to show up or not.
---------------------
BS
Sanders was never member of socialist workers party.
Sanders served as an elector for many minor parties in Vermont.
Sanders is not an anti-American.
His opposition to foreign wars is more consistent with mainstream American voters who are mostly opposed to the foreign policy establishment in Washington DC.
References
-------------------------------------
Democracy Now
Can Bernie Sanders Defeat Trump?
Jacobin’s Bhaskar Sunkara & The Atlantic’s David Frum Debate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lm02XJAAM9M
Jacobin’s Bhaskar Sunkara & The Atlantic’s David Frum Debate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lm02XJAAM9M
-------------------------------------
Friedman, Thomas
My Take on Thomas Friedman's View of the 2020 Democratic Primary
by Fred Beshears
FMB: Friedman claims that Sanders is un-electable, but he does say much to defend his view. He strongly favors Michael Bloomberg.
-------------------------------------
Frum, David
Trumpocracy: the corruption of the American republic
by David Frum
David Frum was speech writer for George Bush.
Bernie cannot win: but unless other Democrats take a page from his book - stressing the practical over the theoretical, the universal over the particular - the won't prevail either.
By David Frum
Atlantic
Jan 27, 2020
-------------------------------------
ScottW (Facebook comment)
I'd worry that Sanders would do pretty much the same as Corbyn did in the UK elections - energize the left base, but fail to gain the trust of enough moderates to win an election.
Sunkara, Bhaska
The Socialist Manifesto:
the case for radical politics in an era of extreme inequality
by Bhaskar Sunkara
Sanders is leading the pack in Iowa - and that's good news for Democrats
The Guardian
by Bhaskar Sunkara
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/13/sanders-iowa-leading-democrats-panic
Bhaskar Sunkara is founding editor and publisher of Jacobin
------------------------------
Thompson, Derek
Bernie Sanders Is George McGovern
The similarities between 2020 and 1972 are too astonishing to ignore. But there’s one big difference.
by Derek Thompson
1/21/2020
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/bernie-sanders-george-mcgovern/606883/
Let me begin with a confession. When I started to report out and write this article, I had a simple thesis: Bernie Sanders is not George McGovern.
The catastrophic loser of the 1972 presidential election, McGovern has become a convenient bogeyman for any moderate or conservative arguing that leftism is a fatal disease in a general election. McGovern won just one state, Massachusetts, while the incumbent, Richard Nixon, commanded 96 percent of the Electoral College vote. It was then the largest Republican landslide in U.S. history.
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